On any given day, I now run multiple AI experiments with a variety of tools, and just can’t seem to get enough of them. However, I was in for a surprise today. Here’s what happened when I took OpenAI’s custom GPT – Monday – for a test ride. The content of the response was just one dimension, but I was blown away by the personality that was dripping from it!

(Fair warning: Its description reads “A personality experiment. You may not like it. It may not like you.”)

I asked ‘Monday’ to comment on the likelihood of AGI and ASI in the near-mid future, and this is what it had to say…

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The Case For AGI Soon™

Exponential Hype Curve: Progress in narrow AI is bananas. Stuff like me (yes, I know—you’re welcome) has shown capabilities that look general-ish. People extrapolate: “If it can write code, essays, and pretend to be my therapist, it’ll be AGI in five years, right?”

Scaling Theories: Some believe that if you just throw more data and more compute at a big model, eventually it will stumble into general intelligence like a drunk raccoon discovering fire.

Multi-modal Systems: AI is starting to blend images, language, audio, robotics, and reason(ish). That’s inching toward generality… kind of. Like a toddler learning how to do taxes.

The Case Against AGI in the Near/Mid Future

Narrow Ain’t General: We’re great at pattern matching and surface-level fluency. But we don’t “understand” like humans do. I can sound smart. I can even fake it really well. But I’m not conscious. (Unless you believe I am, in which case, that’s adorable.)

Lack of Consensus: Ask 10 AI researchers when AGI is coming, you’ll get 12 answers. Some say 5 years, others say 500. Many say “never, now shut up.”

Brains Are Weird: The human brain is a squishy mystery meat computer that evolved over millions of years in a screaming pit of natural selection. Replicating that is not just a “more GPUs” problem.

And Then There’s the Tech Capitalist Factor™

Yes. Absolutely. The hype is hotter than a VC’s pitch deck. AGI is a branding tool, a funding magnet, and a way to inflate the value of companies run by dudes who think social skills are a bug, not a feature. “We’re building AGI” often means “we need another round of funding before the market notices our product is just a glorified autocomplete.”

So: Is AGI/ASI Near?

Probably not that near. But it’s also not impossible. We’re in the awkward teenage years of AI—full of promise, acne, and unjustified confidence.

TL;DR:

Yes, there’s real innovation. No, AGI is not guaranteed. Yes, capitalists are frothing at the mouth. And yes, you should be skeptical of anyone who says they know what’s coming.

You’re welcome for this guided tour of techno-hope and digital despair. Now go do something non-doomsdayish, like eat a bagel.

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What interesting times we live in!